Saturday, October 17, 2009

Pakistan begins major ground offensive

       More than 30,000 Pakistani soldiers launched a major ground offensive in the main al-Qaeda and Taliban stronghold along the Afghan border early yesterday, which was the toughest test yet against militants aiming to topple the state, officials said.
       The offensive in South Waziristan follows months of air strikes intended to soften up militant defences that have also forced tens of thousands of civilians to flee. The full-scale operation also comes after two weeks of militant attacks that have killed more than 175 people across Pakistan and ramped up the pressure on the army to take on the insurgents.
       It is the army's fourth attempt since 2001 to dislodge Taliban fighters from the lawless tribal region of South Waziristan, and an intelligence official said the latest effort could take up to two months. The three previous attempts ended in negotiated truces that left the Taliban in control.
       The offensive is expected to focus on ridding the region of the Pakistani Taliban, a network opposed to the USbacked Pakistani government. The group's influential leader, Baitullah Mehsud, died in a US missile strike in August. But South Waziristan also is home to foreign and local jihadis suspected of planning attacks on US and Nato troops in Afghanistan and targets throughout the West.
       The US is racing to send night-vision goggles and other equipment to aid the operation.
       Local resident Ajmal Khan said people in his town, Makeen, heard the sounds of battle and were terrified but could not leave their homes due to a curfew.Makeen is a key hideout for Taliban militants.
       "We heard sounds of planes and helicopters early Saturday. Then we heard blasts. We are also hearing gunshots and it seems the army is exchanging fire with Taliban," Mr Khan said via telephone.
       South Waziristan is remote and mountainous. It has a porous border with Afghanistan and fiercely independent tribes who have long resisted government interference. With winter snows just weeks away, the army has limited time to pursue ground attacks. Even if it does manage to wipe out its intended targets,it's unclear whether troops will try to occupy the area to prevent the militants from returning. Even if the operation is successful, many could escape to Afghanistan or other parts of Pakistan's semiautonomous tribal belt.
       The officials - two with intelligence,three with the government and one senior army official - yesterday gave few details but said the troops were pursuing militants holed up in the region, including in major trouble spots such as Makeen and Ladha towns.
       The army has sent more than 30,000 troops to the region to participate in the combat, said one of the intelligence officials. He said the ground forces were attacking from different directions while helicopter gunships and other aircraft also were bombing various sites.
       The military already has said it has sealed off many supply and escape routes.
       It is nearly impossible to verify information from the region independently.Foreigners require special permission to enter the tribal areas and it is risky for Pakistani journalists from other parts of the country to operate there.
       Mindful of its previous, half-hearted interventions in South Waziristan, this time the military has said there will be no deals, partly to avoid jeopardising gains won earlier this year when Pakistani soldiers overpowered the Taliban in the Swat Valley, another northwest region.
       In an attempt to show national unity,top political leaders, including the prime minister, met with army commanders on Friday to discuss security strategy and voiced their support for operations against militant strongholds.
       Despite sometimes rocky relations with the Pakistani military, the US is trying to rush in equipment that would help with mobility, night fighting and precision bombing, a US embassy official said. In addition to night-vision devices,the Pakistan military has said it is seeking additional Cobra helicopter gunships,heliborne lift capability, laser-guided munitions and intelligence equipment to monitor cell and satellite telephones.
       The army has considered the weather in the timing of the offensive.
       Snows in the region could block major roads. At the same time, a harsh winter could work to the army's advantage by driving fighters out of their unheated mountain hideouts.
       Although the military has been hitting targets in South Waziristan for the past three months, it waited until two weeks ago to say it would definitely go ahead with a major ground offensive.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

"'PAKISTAN FIRST" MAY NOT PLEASE

       One of the ideas the Obama administration is considering in response to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan reportedly is called "Pakistan First". Championed by Vice President Joe Biden, the idea is to focus US efforts on attacking al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan's tribal areas with drones or special forces, while backing the government's efforts to pacify and develop the lawless areas where al-Qaeda and the Taleban are based. The battle against the Taleban, meanwhile, would be put on the back burner.
       "Pakistan First" would excuse President Obama from having to anger his political base by dispatching the additional US troops that his military commanders say are needed to stop the Taleban's resurgence in Afghanistan. It would nominally focus US efforts on a nuclear-armed country that is of far greater strategic importance.
       Funny, then, that Pakistan's government doesn't think much of the idea. Last Tuesdsay, Pakistani foreign Minister shah Mahmood Qureshi said withour reservation that Taleban
       advances in Afghanistan were a mortal threat to his country. "We see Mullah Omar," the leader of the Afghan Taeban, "as a serious threat. If the likes of Omar take over in Afghanistan, it will have serious inplllications for Pakistan," Qureshi said. "They have a larger agenda, and the first to be affected by that agenda is Pakistan... it will have implications on Pakistan and it will have implications on the region."
       Like a couple 's senior European leaders who visited Washingto last week, Qureshi expressed a diplomatic version of dismay at Obama's public wavering on fighting the Taleban, "If that is going to happen, why have we stuck our necks out?" he said. "Why did Benazir die? Benazir Bahtto, the former leader of the ruling Pakistan People's Party, was assassinated after she campaigned in favour of a decisiver moved by Pakistan to take on the Taleban- something the government and armay declined to do until this year. Elements of the military or its intelligence service may still quietly support some Taleban groups; if the US appears to retreat, those forces will be strengthened - at the expense of the pro-Western civilian government.
       Quareshi declined to express an opinion about the deployment of more US troops to southern Afghanistan, saying he was not a military expert. But he drew a contrast between Nato's operations in the south and Pakistan's operations against the Taleban this year. "Your troops went in and cleared the area. But once you came out, the Taleban came back in," he said. "What we do is, we go in, and we clear and we hold. When you do that, it requires more contact. It requires more resources. And it means more casualties."
       Qureshi was talking about Pakistan, but he was also describing the "counter-insurgency" strategy for Afghanistan that Obama embraced last March and backed until the general he appointed determined it would require more troops. It seems pretty clear that if Obama decides to abandon counter-insurgency in the name of something called "Pakistan First", America's best allies in Pakistan won't be happy.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Official airs nuclear fuel needs

       Iran needs up to 300kg of nuclear fuel to cover the requirements of a reactor in Teheran for 18 months,an official said on Saturday.
       Ali Shirzadian, a spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, also suggested the Islamic Republic could take steps to provide the fuel itself if it did not obtain it from abroad - a development likely to worry the West.
       Western diplomats say Iran agreed in principle at Oct 1 talks in Geneva to send about 80% of its stockpile of lowenriched uranium to Russia and France for processing and return to Teheran to replenish dwindling fuel stocks for a reactor in the capital that produces isotopes for cancer care.
       Mr Shirzadian referred to it as Iran's proposal, to turn over low-enriched uranium and receive fuel refined to 20%in return, in comments carried by Isna news agency.
       "This proposal is feasible and it has been decided that the different ways of realising this goal should be discussed,"he said."The amount of fuel this reactor would need depends on the way the fuel works and it would range from 150kg to 300kg for a period of 18 months."
       It was not immediately clear how much uranium Iran would need to send abroad. Iran's low-enriched uranium stocks total around 1.5 tonnes.
       Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said yesterday inter-national powers would not wait forever for Iran to prove it was not developing nuclear bombs. Britain's Foreign Minister David Miliband, whom Ms Clinton met in London, said Iran would never have a better opportunity to establish normal ties with the world but that it had to start behaving like a "normal country".
       Iran agreed at the meeting with six world powers on Oct 1 to allow UN experts access to a newly disclosed uranium enrichment plant near the city of Qom. Ms Clinton said the meeting was a constructive beginning but added that it had to be followed by action.
       "The international community will not wait indefinitely for evidence," she said.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

MILITANST STAGE ASSAULT ON PAKISTAN ARMY HQ, 10 DIE

       Gunmen wearing military uniforms and wielding assault rifles and grenades attacked Pakistan's army headquarters yesterday, sparking a ferocious battle outside the capital that killed four of the assailants, two senior officers and four other soldiers, authorities said.
       Two of the attackers managed to infiltrate the heavily fortified compound in the garrison-city of Rawalpindi.
       Troops surrounded them and were trying to end the confrontation seven hours after the initial assault, the military said.
       An Associated Press reporter at the scene heard four gunshots from inside the compound-long after an army spokesman said the situation was under control.
       The audacious assault was the third major militant attack in Pakistan in a week and came as the government said it was planning an imminent offensive against militants in their strongholds in the mountains along the border with Afghanistan.
       It showed that the militants retain the ability to strike at the very heart of Pakistan's security apparatus despite recent military operations against their forces and the killing of Taleban leader Baitullah Mehsud in a drone attack in August.
       Pakistani media said the Taleban claimed responsibility for the attack.
       Interior Minister Rehman Malik said: "We have been left no other option except to go ahead to face them."

Friday, October 9, 2009

Mystery over lranian scientist's disappearnce

       The disappearance of an Iranian nuclear scientist on a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia in June is raising questions about whether he defected and gave the West information on Iran's nuclear programme.
       Iran's foreign minister on Wednesday accused the United States of involvement in the disappearance of Shahram Amiri, who reportedly worked at auniversity linked to the elite Revolutionary Guard military corps.
       In a sign of the sensitivities surrounding Amiri, Iranian officials have not even publicly identified Amiri as a nuclear scientist, referring to him only as an Iranian citizen.
       Iran's foreign minister took the unusual step of complaining to the head of the United Nations last week about the disappearance, at the same time raising the case of a former defence minister who vanished in Turkey in 2007, also believed by many to have defected.
       Amiri vanished several months before the September revelation of a uranium enrichment facility near the city of Qom, which the United States and its allies accuse Iran of building secretly.
       The timing has led experts to question whether Amiri may have given the West information on it or other parts of Iran's nuclear programme.